There’s More to a Bubble Than Rising Home Prices
- By simplify
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- 28 Dec, 2017
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“A bubble requires both overvaluation based on fundamentals and speculation. It is natural to focus on an asset’s fundamental value, but the real key for detecting a bubble is speculation…Speculation tends to chase appreciating assets, and then speculation begets more speculation, until finally, for some reason that will become obvious to all in hindsight, the ‘bubble’ bursts.
I have taken to calling the housing market a ‘bubble’.”
– Bill McBride of Calculated Risk calling the bubble back in April 2005
Where do we stand today regarding speculation?
- The number of homes purchased by an investor and
- The number of homes being flipped (resold within a twelve-month period)
“There is currently some flipping activity, but this is more the normal type of flipping (buy, improve and then sell). Back in 2005, people were just buying homes and letting them sit vacant – and then selling without significant improvements. Classic speculation.”
What are the experts saying about speculation in today’s market?
Dr. Eddie Seiler , Chief Housing Economist at Summit Consulting :
“The speculative ‘flipping mania’ of 2006 is absent from most metro areas.”
Tian Liu , Chief Economist of Genworth Mortgage Insurance:
“The nature of housing demand is different as well, with more potential homeowners and far fewer speculators in the housing market compared to the 2005-2007 period.”
And what does McBride, who called the last housing bubble, think about today’s real estate market?
“In 2005, people were just buying homes and letting them sit vacant – and then selling without significant improvements. Classic speculation. And even more dangerous during the bubble was the excessive use of leverage (all those poor-quality loans). Currently lending standards are decent, and loan quality is excellent…
I wouldn’t call house prices a bubble – and I don’t expect house prices to decline nationally like during the bust .”
Bottom Line
There is no doubt that the largest challenge in today’s housing market is a lack of housing inventory for sale. This challenge has been defined as an “overwhelming lack of supply,” and even a “straight up inventory crisis.”
First American just released the results of a survey which sheds light on the reasons for the current lack of supply.
The survey asked title agents and real estate professionals to identify what they believe are the top reasons for this lack of inventory in their markets. Here are the results of the survey:
- 47% - existing homeowners are worried that they will not be able to find a home to buy
- 5% - first-time buyer demand is absorbing a large share of available homes
- 3% - existing homeowners’ mortgage rates are lower than the current rates
- 6% - insufficient or negative equity in the home
- 6% - foreign buyer demand is absorbing a large share of available homes
As the survey revealed, there is a shortage of current homeowners willing to put their homes on the market for one of three reasons (see numbers 1, 3 and 4 above).
Is this an opportunity for some homeowners?
The report on the survey explains:
“The crowd has spoken, and it seems in many markets home buyers and sellers alike are ‘imprisoned’ by the lack of housing inventory."
That leaves a tremendous opportunity for every homeowner not facing these concerns. If you can put your home on the market today, you are subject to far less competition than at any time in recent history. That will result in your home selling quickly and for the highest possible price.
Bottom Line
While many homeowners are feeling imprisoned for multiple reasons, those who are not handcuffed by these concerns have a once in a lifetime opportunity to sell their houses at a peak selling time.
